Good evening, everyone. On Saturday night, the Green Bay Packers will look to begin their run to Super Bowl LVI. Because they are the number one seed in the NFC, the Packers can stay at Lambeau Field for the postseason. Entering the wild card weekend, the Packers had a possibility of facing any one of these 4 teams: the Eagles, the 49ers, the Cardinals, or the Rams. The latter three teams on this list were defeated by Green Bay in the regular season. The NFC slate of wild card games ended with the 7 seed Eagles losing to the number 2 seed Buccaneers, the 6 seed 49ers getting a win at AT&T Stadium against the 3 seed Cowboys, and the 4 seed Rams taking care of business at home against the 5 seed Cardinals. Therefore, the Rams get to go to face the Bucs while the Packers get to take on the San Francisco 49ers for the second time this season. For this game, the Packers get to host the 49ers at Lambeau Field on Saturday night.
This is the 9th playoff game against the 49ers in Packers history, with each team winning 4 games each. The Packers won the first three matchups: 1995 Divisional Round at 3Com Park, 1996 Divisional Round at Lambeau Field, and the 1997 NFC Championship game at 3Com Park. The 49ers won at 3Com Park in the 1998 Wild Card round thanks to a missed Jerry Rice fumble call and a last second touchdown pass from Steve Young to Terrell Owens that officially ended Mike Holmgren’s stint as head coach of Green Bay. 3 years later, the Packers won in the Wild Card round at Lambeau Field 25-15. The last three playoff games were won by the 49ers in 2012, 2013, and 2019. Two of those games involved Colin Kaepernick and the other one involved Raheem Mostert running all over the Packers defense. With the playoff record against the 49ers tied at 4-4, the Packers have a chance to get an advantage on that series and exorcise the demons of the 2019 NFC Championship game blowout loss. Not only that, but they will have 81,000+ fans cheering for them at Lambeau Field for the first time in 2 years (the crowd was small because of pandemic restrictions last year). With all of this talk out of the way, let’s get into detail on what the Packers need to do to win on a frigid Saturday night and move on to the NFC Championship Game.
On offense, the Packers need to stay balanced in their attack. It starts with the performance of the offensive line, which is coached by Adam Stenavich. Both David Bakhtiari and Josh Myers came back in the regular season finale at Detroit and played well. Not only will they (hopefully) be suiting up against the 49ers, but Billy Turner will be coming back as well. Jon Runyan and Lucas Patrick have played well too. All of these O-Linemen (plus the receivers) need to do their best to create the running lanes for Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to run through. It is up to the backs to follow the holes for maximum gain while protecting the ball in the process. Seeing that the game will be played in very cold temperatures (and possibly some snow), the Packers need to stay committed to the run game even if the play doesn’t always result in 5-6 yards. If they keep running the ball down the defense’s throat, especially at the pass rushers (Nick Bosa, in particular), the Packers will tire the 49ers out by the final quarter. All of this efficient running can keep the San Francisco defense honest and not get after Aaron Rodgers all game. In passing situations, it is up to the offensive linemen (plus any additional blockers) to keep Rodgers upright and let him find an open target to throw accurately to. Back in Week 3, Davante Adams had no problem getting over 100 receiving yards, including 2 clutch catches that set up the game-winning field goal by Mason Crosby. I expect Adams to repeat that performance against the 49ers secondary, as long as he catches each pass. Surprisingly, Randall Cobb is coming back from core surgery on Saturday night. That would provide Rodgers with a trusted target in key third down situations. Unfortunately, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who is a potential deep threat on every play, is doubtful with the back injury that he suffered against the Lions (even though he had a week off to rest). Despite this potential absence, Rodgers has plenty of receivers to throw to in addition to Adams and Cobb. Those additional pass catchers include Allen Lazard, Equanimeous St. Brown, Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, and the running backs. They all need to run their routes precisely and catch each pass from Rodgers (other than throwaways). Most importantly, the Packers need to convert third downs and avoid any turnovers. These two things can help them achieve their goal of sustaining long touchdown drives and give San Francisco less time to respond back. In the red zone, the Packers need to score touchdowns on each trip instead of settling for field goals. I have full faith in Matt LaFleur and his coaching staff. I am sure that they have a game plan ready to go to confuse the 49ers defense. As long as the offense plays exceptionally well for all 4 quarters, I would not be surprised if they score at least 35 points (and do a few Lambeau Leaps) on Saturday.
On defense, it all starts with keeping the 49ers ground game in check. A number of guys can run the ball for San Francisco, including rookie RB Elijah Mitchell and WR Deebo Samuel. It wouldn’t surprise me that Kyle Shanahan will also design plays for rookie QB Trey Lance to scramble for some yards too. For the Packers, some key players are potentially coming back, including Za’Darius Smith, Whitney Mercilus, and Jaire Alexander. De’Vondre Campbell didn’t play in Week 18 due to rest and he should help the Packers defense stuff the ground game. That’s in addition to Rashan Gary, Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, Krys Barnes, and Preston Smith. Not only do they need to look out for normal run plays, but they have to keep the end around plays in check as well. The defense may not be able to fully stop the run. What’s important is that they keep the explosive plays in check, both on the ground and through the air. Speaking of the passing game, the pass rush should have no problem getting to Jimmy Garoppolo often. I think that Garoppolo will have a tough time on Saturday given his thumb and shoulder issues. The reason is because this is his first start when the weather is below 40 degrees Fahrenheit (the weather is forecast in the single digits with possible wind chills in the negatives). That might make it tough for him to grip the ball and make good throws. I am sure that the pass rush can get him to throw errant passes that could be picked off by the defensive backs. In addition to Alexander, there’s also Rasul Douglas, Adrian Amos, Chandon Sullivan, Darnell Savage, and rookie Eric Stokes. These DBs should have no problem covering the receivers and potentially getting the interceptions. The one receiving threat that they need to keep a close eye on is TE George Kittle, who can take a simple middle of the field pass and make a big gain out of it. Kyle Juszczyk is another guy that the defense needs to look out for in the passing game. Hopefully defensive coordinator Joe Barry plays mostly man coverage and not play the DBs 10 yards off on a third and 3. Speaking of third downs, that’s the most important thing for the Packers to keep San Francisco from converting. Stuffing them for little or even negative gain on first and second downs can help the Packers get this done. If the 49ers are able to get in the red zone (which is hopefully not too many times), the defense needs to keep them to only field goals. Another important thing for the Packers defense to do is to capitalize on any turnover opportunities. Whether they be interceptions of Jimmy Garoppolo or a forced fumble, the Packers must make the most of them. Any turnover can give the Packers offense more chances to score, unless the turnover is a pick six or a “scoop and score.” I have no doubt that the defense will be ready for any tricks the 49ers have up their sleeve. I also have a feeling that the Lambeau Field crowd will help the defense by creating a lot of distracting noise.
On Special Teams, all the Packers need to do is avoid any mistakes that could give the 49ers extra momentum. One example of this is allowing a huge kickoff or punt return that either goes for a touchdown or gets close to one. Back in Week 3, the Packers allowed a big kick return that gave the 49ers a short field to work with just before halftime. The 49ers then scored a touchdown and got back into the game. Therefore, it is up to the coverage unit to stop the returner for minimum gain without any missed tackles. The easiest way to avoid this is for Mason Crosby to kick each ball into the end zone for a touchback or Corey Bojorquez to punt deep and out of bounds. On the other side, whoever is returning kicks and punts needs to protect the ball on each return and catch it cleanly. If there is an opportunity for a long return, he needs to follow the blocks by the other players and hope that there’s no penalty that nullifies the play. On both field goal and punt attempts, Steven Wirtel needs to snap the ball accurately to Corey Bojorquez, who will either punt or secure the hold for Mason Crosby. The line needs to protect each kick and punt from being blocked, which has happened a couple of times this season. It is then up to Crosby to make every field goal and extra point kick, especially during crunch time. Bojorquez needs to punt each ball long and deep into 49ers territory. All I hope for the Special Teams unit is for each player to do their jobs well enough to keep the mistakes to a minimum. Here’s to a great game by the Special Teams unit.
Overall, I am excited and confident about Saturday night’s game. The Packers will be ready to take on the 49ers in front of the Lambeau Field faithful. 81,000+ people will be there to cheer the Packers on as they begin their quest for their 5th Vince Lombardi Trophy. Most importantly, I pray that nobody gets injured on either team during this contest. I’ll be here with my recap regardless of the outcome of the game. Have a good night, everyone. Go Pack Go!
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